Met Department predict normal monsoon this year

There is good news for farmers, consumers and policymakers, as the southwest monsoon is likely to be normal this year after last year's dismal rains, according to the initial projections of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The India weather bureau on Friday predicted that the southwest monsoon rainfall will be normal at 98% of the long period average (LPA). "The long range forecast for the 2010 southwest monsoon season (June-September) is that the rainfall for the country as whole is likely to be normal," the IMD said in a statement on Friday. This is the weather office's first official forecast for this year's monsoon. "Rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be normal," B. P. Yadav, spokesman for the IMD, told reporters in New Delhi, adding that the forecast model had an error margin of 5%.
He said that the El Nino conditions, which disrupts normal weather patterns, was weakening. "The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate high probability for the present El Nino conditions to maintain till early part of the monsoon season and then weaken to become near neutral during the subsequent months," the IMD said. The LPA average rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1941-1990 is 89 cm, the IMD said. Southwest monsoon rainfall was only 78% of LPA last year, though the IMD had initially forecast it at 96%. IMD will update the above forecast in June 2010 as a part of the second stage forecast.